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Member since May 2011 · 2203 posts · Location: Brisbane
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Subject: The next great empire
For about fifteen years I've been contemplating the rise and fall of empires.  They're coming more and faster now than ever before, and it's entirely possible that I'll see the fall of the American empire, and both the rise and fall of the Chinese one in my lifetime.  But I've always looked farther, wondering where the next empire would be, and it wasn't hard to cast an eye upon Africa as a contender.  It wasn't hard, there simply wasn't anywhere left to look.  By the time Asia'd had its fling, Africa would be the last third world.  Sure there were holdouts, but places like the 'stans were being held back by active repression more than internal inability.  Africa, though, was haphazardly modernizing and heading t'wards being a global power by virtue of not having any significant legacy empire momentum to prevent it.

And it turns out China agrees with me.  (this is a NewYorkTimes link, which means a free registration is required to read the article).

Basically, it's a book review that says things like this:

The authors contend that China’s ambitions in Africa are grandly geopolitical as well as economic. As Jacob Wood, a Shanghai-born housing developer based in Africa for more than 30 years, tells them: “I’m going to be honest with you, China is using Africa to get where the United States is now, and surpass it.”

On the one hand, the Chinese invest heavily in infrastructure projects and create hundreds of thousands of jobs in return for being granted oil, mining and other concessions by African nations. According to the authors, Chinese “discretion and humility” are a breath of fresh air against a backdrop of “colonial arrogance” by France, Britain and other nations. In addition, the authors say, “Africa welcomes any competition that shakes up the Western, Lebanese and Indian business monopolies.”

Despite the recitations of socioeconomic and cultural disruptions and workplace abuses, the authors reach what may be an overly sanguine conclusion. They contend that “China’s arrival has been a boon for a continent adrift,” adding that the Chinese have “given Africa a real sense of worth, as much in the eyes of Africans themselves as in the eyes of foreigners.”

It includes several statements to counter the rosy story, and adds that since the book went to print, there are stories emerging of China pulling out of some big deals already made.

Thing is, Africa is largely untapped.  For sure it's exploited, by without as well as within, but if you were a wannabe superpower (China) where would you go for raw materials and expansion space?  It sure as shit wouldn't be Europe or North America.  South America or Africa would be a good start, and my bet is Africa is more appealing.  Apparently I'm not alone in that.

China Safari (Amazon)
BLEARGH
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Member since May 2011 · 2203 posts · Location: Brisbane
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I wonder if America really gets it.  Does the average American really see that their time at the top of the global dogpile is fast ending?  Based on the actions of their leaders don't really get it, and there's no chance they're really taking on board what this means.

I'm not really sure I can fully get my head around how it feels to be part of an empire in decline.  I'm not American, but I think being Canadian makes me closer than any other nationality.  But, since I've not lived in North America for more than a decade, I think I'm far enough removed that I can see things from a fairly interesting perspective.  I'm from there, but no longer stuck there.  And thank fuck for that.

I wonder if it's this way for all empires in decline, the leaders focusing on unimportant but tractable problems while their entire society implodes rather than deal with the necessary changes. 

It's going to be an interesting ride for all of us.


China and America are very interesting case studies for anyone paying attention.  The things each country's doing now will be fascinating study for all our descendants.  America is forgetting everything it ever knew about cooperation and statesmanship, squabbling internally while the next Empire, undoubtedly China, struggles to fill the role it is being forced to assume. 

I view this process as inevitable.  America doesn't have the manpower to compete with China.  America isn't hungry anymore, its leaders fat and lazy and bellicose.  China has so many hungry people, clamouring at the same time and right fucking now please all of the things it took America two hundred years to achieve.  Freedom, housing, luxuries, the basics, quality and all of the things they've never had before.

So many people desperate to get out of their mud huts, willing to work their fingers to the bone to make life more bearable for themselves and their families.  And Americans, meanwhile, having achieved all this already, don't want to work hard anymore.  The same thing happens to all countries, but wow, it's amazing to watch it happen now.

Front row seats to the most amazing changing of the guard our planet's ever seen.
BLEARGH
This post was edited on 2010-11-21, 00:18 by NFG.
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Member since Jun 2009 · 25 posts
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I would have to disagree with the notion of Africa being the next empirical contender (sounds like a tv show :P). In my view it would have to be one of the BRICs nations, BRICs being Brazil, Russia, India and China...with my vote going toward either India or Brazil.

India in many ways while still maintaining very low wages for their poorest citizens has also managed to create a western style economy, which China at this point is still unable to claim.  This means that even as India grows their ecnomic system should hypothetically remain much more stable than that of China's and allow it to have the ability to outgrow the Chinese nation...heck it has almost done that already...

Brazil on the other hand while not quite as large as India or China at this stage, has the potential to grow very large very quickly...as long as it gets its act together.

I think really the only way Africa could ever become an empire would be if the whole world is forced to invest within the countries there...but even then the ludicrous amount of corruption and inter-tribal conflict would negate much of the potential growth.
money cake..ayumyumyumyumyumyum
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Member since May 2011 · 2203 posts · Location: Brisbane
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I agree.  Africa's rise is only going to come long after all of us are dead, if it comes at all.

I would favour Brazil over India by a wide margin.  India's got too far to go.  Russia can't be an empire as long as they keep acting like Russia.  The infighting and paranoia will prevent any serious aspirations.
BLEARGH
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Member since Oct 2007 · 271 posts
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I don't ordinarily correct spelling or word use, but it's embarrassed me before so I think it's worth mentioning. 'Empirical' applies strictly to observed information, as in 'empirical data' in the context of a scientific experiment. When discussing things of or in an empire, the word we want is 'imperial'.

Anyway. One of the things that interests me about this process is the way that the next empire will affect the values of the world. America, in its time, spread a theatrical bravado around the world by way of its technology and its media. Saddam Hussein's favorite movie was The Godfather, to name just one absurd example of how American culture reached places it really shouldn't have. What will it be like when China's influence starts to creep around the globe?
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Member since May 2011 · 2203 posts · Location: Brisbane
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That's a fantastic question.  After thinking about it for a while, I think we're going to see an age of brash action from mainland Chinese.  While my personal and business dealings with other Chinese (HK, Taiwan, Singapore) has been universally fantastic, my exposure to Chinese Chinese has been less favourable.   They are blunt and forceful in ways totally alien to me.

In Sydney it seems everyone is rude and pushy and generally uncaring about your presence.  Chinese tend to be pushy and rude and completely unaware of other people.  For all their talk of lengthy civilized society I don't find that the Chinese really play well with others.  They're also an incredibly proud people, it seems.  So unless things change, I expect we'll see a world led by a country that does whatever it thinks best whenever it wants.

...So, just like America has done, but this time blithely unaware of its neighbors' criticisms instead of uncaring.
BLEARGH
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Member since May 2011 · 2203 posts · Location: Brisbane
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The continued fall of America, like so many empires before it, is greased by one tremendously bad idea after another being labeled as a good thing, sold by a privileged few to a powerless mass.  A few people can see it happening, but I don't see a lot of things stopping it.  Ergo my love of wikileaks, one of the only tools currently being used to fight this process.

Over in America, we're seeing interesting things:


  • The end of reality: The FBI creates criminal plots and celebrates the capture of its own victims.  When law enforcement entices people to commit crimes and provides the means to do them, they just might be part of the problem.

  • Petty revenge: The American feds are basically looking at changing the law to make what Wikileaks (and specifically, Julian Assange) has done illegal.  It wasn't illegal when they did it; the American laws that deal with these things apply only to American citizens or to the original leakers, not the republishers.  As the linked article states, "It's difficult to think of a more ridiculous and simply petty response from the feds." It won't un-leak what's already out there, and it'll just make future leaks harder to stop.

These and many, many other actions are things we should all be railing against, but we're not.  Too little education, too little awareness of history, too much fear.  It's easy for those in power to rake you over the coals when you don't understand it's happening.

Thus empires fall.
BLEARGH
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